Vienna: The OPEC Reference Basket averaged USD 70.97 a barrel in July 2025, marking a monthly increase of USD 1.24, in contrast, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures posted slight declines. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), with stronger growth expected in 2026.
According to Kuwait News Agency, the Organization revised its 2025 global economic growth forecast upward to three percent, while keeping the 2026 forecast unchanged at 3.1 percent. OPEC's upward revisions showed the US growing at 1.8 percent in 2025, the Eurozone at 1.2 percent for both 2025 and 2026, China at 4.8 percent in 2025, while India maintained the highest forecast at 6.5 percent.
OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with 0.1 million coming from OECD countries and 1.2 million from non-OECD nations, with a further rise of 1.4 mb/d projected in 2026, supported by ongoing economic growth. Regarding supply, the report noted that OPEC+ crude production increased in July by 335,000 barrels per day to 41.94 million barrels. It added that non-OPEC+ crude supply is forecast to grow by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, driven mainly by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
OPEC's latest projections suggest stable demand growth, steady supply expansion, and improving global economic momentum, underscoring a cautiously optimistic outlook for the oil market.