Seoul: When war erupts in the Middle East, the cost is borne by the countries nearest to the conflict, as well as by those not involved. The US and Israel carried out attacks on Iran late last month while negotiations were still in progress. This has led to a sudden and severe energy crisis in Japan, South Korea, and China, especially after Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. According to TRTworld.com, this conflict has exposed a significant test for the global energy order, with the Asia-Pacific region being the most affected. The numbers alone tell a stark story: in 2024, the majority of oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz was destined for Asia. Japan relies on the Middle East for approximately 90 percent of its crude oil, with most passing through the strait. Similarly, South Korea sources about 70 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, with 95 percent of it transiting through Hormuz. As of March 17, over 150 oil t ankers were still stuck in the Gulf, two weeks into the blockade. The Japanese government, as an emergency measure, began releasing 80 million barrels from its strategic reserves, expected to last only about 45 days. However, the available alternatives are limited. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess pipelines capable of bypassing the Strait, but these can only transport a fraction of the usual daily flow. The economic ripple effects are significant, with Brent crude prices soaring by about 15 percent initially and reaching $120 a barrel as the conflict escalated. Projections suggest prices could rise to $150 or higher, with Japan's GDP potentially declining by 0.6 percent in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. South Korea has already launched a substantial financial program to stabilize its market amidst the uncertainty. The crisis has also had political ramifications, particularly in Japan. Former President Trump urged countries like Japan to dispatch warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, just before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington. Takaichi, who aims to amend Japan's pacifist constitution, faces internal challenges over deploying military assets, opting instead to consider non-combat roles like mine sweeping or surveillance. In the Indo-Pacific region, the redeployment of US missile defense systems, previously stationed in South Korea, to the Middle East has raised concerns. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung expressed opposition but acknowledged limited capacity to prevent the redeployment. This shift in US defense assets complicates South Korea's position, amid ongoing tensions with North Korea and diplomatic sensitivities with China. Trkiye's approach, characterized by strategic autonomy, offers an alternative model. While maintaining NATO membership, Trkiye engages with multiple global powers, leveraging its energy infrastructure for political leverage. This strategy contrasts with Japan and South Korea's deep alignment with the US, which the Hormuz crisis has shown to entail significant risks. The energy crisis underscores the need for diversification and structural reforms. The scale of Asia's dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil presents systemic challenges, as alternative sources are either costlier or politically complicated. The war has highlighted that energy security and geopolitical strategy cannot be treated as separate issues. As long as this dependency persists, future crises over the Strait of Hormuz are not only likely but inevitable.
