Vienna: Oil prices experienced a decline in October, as revealed in OPEC's monthly report. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value decreased by USD 5.19 per barrel compared to the previous month, averaging USD 65.20 per barrel. Similarly, the ICE Brent front-month contract fell by USD 3.63 per barrel, averaging USD 63.95 per barrel. The NYMEX WTI front-month contract also saw a reduction of USD 3.46 per barrel, settling at an average of USD 60.07 per barrel. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped by USD 5.09 per barrel to an average of USD 64.95 per barrel in October.
According to Kuwait News Agency, the Brent-WTI front-month spread averaged USD 3.88 per barrel in October, marking a decrease of 17 cents per barrel from the previous month. The market structure of the three crude benchmarks-ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman-weakened further during this period. Despite this, the forward curves' front end remained in backwardation, indicating stable physical oil market fundamentals. Hedge funds and money managers largely maintained a bearish outlook on crude oil futures throughout October.
Meanwhile, the global economy is projected to continue its stable growth path, buoyed by the momentum observed throughout the year. The global economic growth forecasts are steady at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, unchanged from the previous month's assessment. Global oil demand growth for 2025 is expected to remain around 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year, consistent with last month's forecast. In the OECD, oil demand is predicted to grow by approximately 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day. For 2026, global oil demand growth is forecasted to be around 1.4 million barrels per day, with the OECD and non-OECD contributing 0.1 million and 1.2 million barrels per day, respectively, in year-on-year growth.