Khartoum: Sudan's ongoing conflict shows no signs of an imminent end as the country continues to experience military stalemate and political fragmentation, leading to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
According to Kuwait News Agency, the conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has evolved from a bilateral confrontation between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into a multi-layered war. Initially a power struggle, it has now expanded into a broader conflict driven by competition for control over cities, resources, and supply lines, with numerous violations recorded. The war has led to a drain on urban centers and a collapse of essential services, while negotiation efforts remain suspended amid sporadic initiatives lacking enforcement mechanisms or deterrent guarantees.
The humanitarian impact has been severe, with millions displaced, health facilities collapsing, and a looming food crisis. Darfur, in particular, has emerged as one of the most tragic fronts. A United Nations humanitarian mission described the situation in Al-Fasher as dire, with acute shortages of food, shelter, medical care, and clean water, alongside widespread violations. The conflict has transformed from a military confrontation to a struggle over basic survival, affecting roads, markets, and health infrastructure.
Recent estimates suggest that between 12 and 13 million people have been displaced or become refugees, positioning the Sudanese crisis among the largest displacement crises globally. The World Food Program has warned of worsening hunger by February 2026 due to depleted stocks and ongoing fighting, stressing the need for a safe humanitarian corridor.
Settlement tracks and diplomatic engagement are crucial, particularly a trilateral plan proposed through the "Jeddah Platform," which aims to end the war, facilitate aid entry, and chart a path toward civilian transition. Sudan's military leadership anticipates a potential shift in the power balance in 2026, based on recent field gains by the army.
Journalist Al-Taher Sati told KUNA that the army remains open to settlement initiatives, especially those from the Jeddah forum, which propose force withdrawals from cities, civilian protection, and reduced humanitarian harm. However, this flexibility is contingent on maintaining state unity and centralizing military power. Sati argues that any settlement failing to integrate the RSF into a unified structure would be unacceptable.
Political activist Najem Al-Deen Dreesa suggests that recent military gains may not lead to a decisive strategic shift, as the RSF retains influence in western Sudan. Analysts highlight the complex political reality overshadowing military assessments. Analyst Izzat Khairy told KUNA that the conflict has moved beyond military resolution, entering a phase of "negative equilibrium," with entrenched stalemate and no resolution in sight.
Khairy points to the rising influence of local armed forces, focusing on local control and territorial entrenchment. Analysts warn of an "undeclared partition," with the RSF controlling regions in western Sudan and the army consolidating control in the east and north. Without a political settlement, separate zones of influence may emerge, leading to further risks like weapon proliferation and irregular migration.
Observers argue that relying on military victory lacks realism, as the absence of coordinated international will limits the chances of reaching a settlement soon. Khairy warns that failure to adopt a realistic approach in 2026 could push Sudan towards a scenario where humanitarian catastrophe and security threats extend to neighboring countries.
Khairy advocates for a coordinated international framework, "Friends of the Quartet," to move beyond crisis management towards actual containment, considering realistic balances and actors. This approach would aim to preserve Sudan's unity, reduce arms flows, curb irregular migration, prevent terrorism resurgence, and lay the groundwork for reconstruction.
Sudan in 2026 finds itself in a complex vortex of violence, division, and institutional erosion. As discussions of peace plans continue, the absence of a clear mechanism to halt fighting and end the protracted war becomes increasingly evident.