Vienna: The oil prices experienced a modest increase in December, signaling a positive outlook for the global economy, as highlighted in OPEC's latest report released on Wednesday. In the same month, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by nine cents, or 0.1 percent month-on-month, to an average of USD 73.07 per barrel, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for January 2025.
According to Kuwait News Agency, the ICE Brent front-month contract saw a slight decrease of 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, averaging USD 73.13 per barrel, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, to USD 69.70 per barrel on average. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a rise, increasing by 68 cents, or 0.9 percent, to an average of USD 73.16 per barrel. The spread between the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI first-month contracts narrowed, falling by 43 cents to an average of USD 3.43 per barrel.
The strengthening of forward curves for oil futures prices, particularly for NYMEX WTI and GME Oman, indicates a more optimistic outlook, with near-month time spreads entering a wider backwardation. This positive sentiment has led hedge funds and other money managers to close a significant volume of NYMEX WTI-related short positions.
Globally, economic growth is projected to increase by 3.1 percent in 2025, with a slight acceleration to 3.2 percent in 2026. This outlook is supported by expectations of inflation normalization and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies. The services sector is anticipated to remain a key driver of growth, bolstered by a gradual recovery in industrial production.
For major economies, the report forecasts a revision of the US economic growth to 2.4 percent in 2025, with a slight decrease to 2.3 percent in 2026. The Eurozone's growth is expected to slightly decline to one percent in 2025 before rising to 1.1 percent in 2026. Japan's growth is projected to remain steady at one percent for both years, while China is forecasted to grow by 4.7 percent in 2025 and 4.6 percent in 2026. India's growth is revised upward to 6.5 percent in 2025, further expanding to 6.8 percent in 2026.
Brazil's economic forecast shows an upward revision to 2.3 percent for 2025, increasing to 2.5 percent in 2026, while Russia's growth is revised to 1.9 percent in 2025, with an expected growth of 1.5 percent in 2026.
The report maintains its forecast for world oil demand growth at 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025. The OECD is expected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, with the non-OECD contributing about 1.3 mb/d. This robust growth is anticipated to continue into 2026, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year.
Non-DoC liquids supply is forecasted to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2025, driven mainly by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. This growth is expected to continue into 2026. Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to see modest growth as well.
Refinery margins saw declines in the US Gulf Coast and Singapore in December, with most segments weakening except for jet/kerosene on the USGC and gasoline in Singapore. However, refining margins in Rotterdam rose due to increased travel activities during the holiday season. Global refinery intake rose to an average of 82.2 mb/d in December, slightly up year-on-year.
Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is revised down by 0.1 mb/d due to changes in 2024 historical data, yet it remains 0.3 mb/d higher than 2024 estimates. In 2026, demand is expected to reach 42.7 mb/d, representing an increase from 2025.
Overall, the growth forecasts for global oil demand and non-DoC supply in 2025 remain consistent with previous assessments, signaling a steady economic trajectory for the near future.