Kuwait city: Kuwait's average oil price recorded USD 71.76 during the first ten months of this year, compared to an average of USD 82.01 per barrel in 2024.
According to Kuwait News Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported a decrease in the average price of the OPEC crude basket in October 2025 by USD 5.19 per barrel on a monthly basis, dropping to USD 65.5. Simultaneously, the Kuwaiti oil price fell by USD 6.16 to USD 66 in the same month, in contrast to USD 72.16 in September.
The decline in oil prices occurred despite global economic growth forecasts remaining steady at three percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. This stability is driven by projections of a rise in global oil demand, exceeding earlier estimates of 1.3 million barrels per day. The positive global economic growth forecasts have been buoyed by significant global economic activity in the third quarter, following reduced uncertainty about trade between the United States and its Asian partners, especially China.
Additionally, recent meetings in Washington with Asian partners have contributed to trade stability. The U.S. economy has maintained growth despite challenges like government shutdowns and delays in official data. These meetings resulted in the consolidation of the trade agreement between the US and Japan and the establishment of new agreements with Southeast Asian economies. A one-year truce with China is anticipated to resume rare earth exports, while the US is reducing additional tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percent.
Despite the imposition of new US tariffs on specific sectors, strong US consumer spending, eased monetary policies, and expansionary financial measures have aided in sustaining expected growth for 2025. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day this year, maintaining September estimates, with slight changes in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states' data for the last three quarters.
OPEC forecasts that OECD's oil demand will grow by 0.1 million barrels per day, contrasted with 1.2 million barrels per day in non-member states, primarily driven by demand from China and India. Global oil demand growth for 2026 is predicted to remain at 1.4 million barrels per day, with contributions of 0.1 million barrels from the organization's member states and 1.3 million barrels from non-member states, led by other Asian economies, followed by India and China.
Locally, Kuwait's average oil output increased to 2.4 million barrels per day in the third quarter, compared to 2.431 million barrels per day in the second quarter. It continued to rise from 2.492 million barrels per day in August to 2.515 million barrels per day in September, reaching a peak of 2.525 million barrels per day in August.
Meanwhile, US crude oil imports fell by eight percent in October, down to 5.6 million barrels per day, marking their lowest level since 2020, while exports decreased by four percent to 4.2 million barrels per day, the highest level in eight months. In Europe, crude oil imports increased in September, driven by higher flows from the US, which compensated for a decline in Russian supplies. Product imports stabilized due to a balance between higher imports of liquefied petroleum gas and fuel oil and lower imports of jet fuel.
Japan continued to increase its oil imports to 2.4 million barrels per day in September, as Chinese imports remained strong despite a monthly decline to 11.5 million barrels per day, up four percent compared to last year. India's imports surged to 4.9 million barrels per day in September, surpassing the last five years' average, with product imports reaching their highest level in ten months and exports hitting a one-year peak, fueled by increased flows to Europe and the Middle East. The report indicated a decrease in demand for the Declaration of Cooperation countries' crude oil by 0.1 million barrels per day in September to 42.4 million barrels per day, up 0.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024 estimates. Demand for 2026 is projected to decrease to 43 million barrels per day, down 0.1 million barrels per day.