Washington: Iran's recent missile attacks on US forces and bases in the Persian Gulf region have highlighted growing tensions within the longstanding US-Gulf security alliance, as per Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council's Project for Middle East Integration and former director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the White House National Security Council during President Donald Trump's first term.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Minor, in a co-authored Atlantic Council analysis with Alina Romanowski, a former US ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq, suggests that Washington and its Gulf allies should transition from relying on a US security guarantee to focusing on regional integration, shared capabilities, and stronger partnerships. Minor emphasizes that the traditional US security model in the Gulf is unsustainable and calls for a redefined role for the United States.
Minor argues that the recent Iranian attacks underscore the vulnerabilities in the current US security posture in the region. She highlights the challenges in de-escalating tensions and reaching a new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, given the Iranian regime's determination to dictate terms and its willingness to continue confronting the US.
The article by Minor and Romanowski identifies the recent attacks as a turning point for the US-Gulf security partnership, necessitating a reset. Minor points out that tensions have persisted for years, with Gulf partners growing increasingly frustrated with Washington's commitments. The Iran conflict exposed the limitations of the US security guarantee, which has been a core assumption since the Carter Doctrine was established in 1980.
In addressing the future of US military presence in the Gulf, Minor suggests that the US should redefine its role from a security guarantor to an integrator. This approach would involve collaborating with Gulf countries to develop their defenses and address regional instability together, rather than leading independent military campaigns as seen in past conflicts.
Minor further argues that Gulf states must build their capabilities independently, as the US can no longer guarantee their security. She stresses the importance of creating a sustainable cease-fire with Iran and addressing the strategic challenges posed by the Strait of Hormuz to reassure Gulf partners.
Highlighting the need for stronger regional capabilities, Minor notes that the concept of the US transitioning to an integrator role has been discussed since Trump's first term and is included in the 2023 CENTCOM operation plan. The challenge lies in operationalizing this strategy and ensuring effective collaboration with Gulf partners.
As Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seek greater strategic independence, Minor acknowledges the divisions within Gulf countries but underscores the value of a US role in facilitating regional security. She calls for diplomatic and political changes to establish a more resilient security architecture in the Gulf, one that can withstand Iranian threats.
Ultimately, Minor envisions a stronger integrated Gulf security structure supported by the US and other trusted partners, deterring potential adversaries from challenging it. The goal is to achieve peace and stability through a robust and resilient security partnership.