Geneva: The International Labour Organization (ILO) has revised its global employment forecast for 2025, reducing the number of new jobs expected from 60 million to 53 million. This adjustment, representing a loss of seven million jobs, reflects a decrease in the global employment growth rate from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent for this year, driven by recent trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
According to Kuwait News Agency, this was revealed in a new report issued by the ILO in Geneva titled "Global Employment Trends and Social Outlook." The report warns of escalating global trade tensions that threaten around 84 million jobs in 71 countries, directly or indirectly linked to US consumer demand. The Asia-Pacific region is particularly vulnerable, with more than 56 million jobs at risk from this escalation. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are identified as the most susceptible countries in terms of potential job losses.
The ILO attributes the adjustment in global employment growth projections to the weakening of global economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has lowered its global GDP growth projection for 2025 to 2.8 percent, down from the previously projected 3.2 percent.
ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo, during a press briefing at the organization's headquarters in Geneva, stated that the report reveals a faster-than-expected global economic slowdown. He cautioned that this slowdown could negatively affect labor markets worldwide if geopolitical tensions persist and new trade disruptions arise. Nonetheless, Steven Kapsos, Head of Data Production and Analysis at the ILO's Statistics Department, explained that the global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower and more fragile pace.
Kapsos further noted that despite the growth slowdown, global employment remains positive, but at a reduced pace compared to expectations. He clarified that these forecasts do not necessarily indicate a large increase in unemployment rates. Instead, the economic slowdown is expected to result in fewer new entrants to the labor market and an increase in the number of people leaving it.
Kapsos pointed out that despite the decline in new job opportunities, labor market resilience remains in many regions, with unemployment still low in some countries. However, this resilience is threatened by decreased business and consumer confidence, posing risks to economic stability in certain nations.
He emphasized that women are leading the trend towards an increase in high-skill jobs, despite disparities in educational qualifications among workers. Only about 47.7 percent of workers have qualifications matching the demands of their jobs.
The report also addresses ongoing challenges faced by the informal economy, which affects over two billion workers globally, limiting the potential for sustainable economic growth. Kapsos discussed the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market, indicating that many medium-skilled workers are at significant risk due to AI-induced transformations. Additionally, the report suggests that AI will increasingly affect high-skill jobs as well, highlighting the need for new policies aimed at protecting workers from these rapid changes.